The US Import Ocean TEUs Volume Index Peaks Early, Masking Rising Trade and Economic Uncertainty

The Inbound Ocean TEUs Volume Index (IOTI), a 14-day moving average index that tracks twenty-foot equivalent unit (TEU) containers arriving at U.S. ports from around the world, has reached a multi-year high of 2,356 following the Fourth of July. This peak, about a month ahead of the typical peak shipping season, offers valuable insight into what transportation markets might expect for the remainder of 2025.

However, this early peak does not necessarily indicate stronger goods demand compared to last year. A portion of this volume increase likely reflects a recovery from lost time earlier in the year when cost-prohibitive tariffs on Chinese imports, enacted in April and early May, temporarily froze activity. Many importers halted purchases from the U.S.’s largest overseas trading partner due to skyrocketing costs, which led to a 15% drop in the IOTI during May.

The Impact of Trade War Uncertainty

The uncertainty surrounding the ongoing trade war initiated by the current administration has had a significant impact on global trade and economic stability. The tariffs imposed on Chinese imports have contributed to broader economic uncertainty, which could suppress consumer demand. While the exact extent of this impact remains unclear, it is evident that the trade war has rattled sentiment among consumers and businesses.

Several indicators suggest underlying weakness in the economy. According to ADP, private-sector hiring stalled in June, leading to a net loss of jobs. Retail sales also softened in May, prompting many economists to forecast further weakening in the second half of the year as the full impact of tariffs begins to filter into prices.

Inventory Levels and Costs on the Rise

The trade war uncertainty has left supply chain managers in a difficult position, balancing how much inventory to procure, how much it will cost, and how much they’ll actually need as consumer health remains in question. Inventory levels have grown somewhat erratically this year, though they’ve followed a generally upward trend since last summer, according to the Logistics Manager’s Index (LMI). More importantly, inventory costs have risen even faster—driven by tariffs and rising warehousing expenses.

This pressure may suppress import volumes in the coming months as companies weigh the cost of holding excess inventory against waiting for more stable economic and policy conditions. Maritime carriers appear to be anticipating softer demand as well. Early signs of blank sailings have emerged in response to declining bookings.

Carriers Managing Capacity

The Ocean TEU Rejection Index, found in SONAR’s Container Atlas application, shows a recent spike in rejected shipments. While this is a small sample that could reflect a short-term fluctuation, it may also suggest that carriers are starting to manage capacity to prevent rate declines.

This early peak in imports may not signal strength in the same way it once did. Still, that doesn’t necessarily mean surface transportation will weaken in the second half of the year. Rising inventory costs could lead to leaner inventories later on, prompting more last-minute orders. In environments like this, demand forecasts tend to lose accuracy—putting added pressure on transportation networks to remain agile and responsive.

Conclusion

The US Import Ocean TEUs Volume Index has reached a multi-year high, but this early peak may not be indicative of stronger goods demand compared to last year. The ongoing trade war uncertainty has had a significant impact on global trade and economic stability, contributing to broader economic uncertainty that could suppress consumer demand. Inventory levels have grown somewhat erratically this year, though they’ve followed a generally upward trend since last summer. Rising inventory costs may suppress import volumes in the coming months as companies weigh the cost of holding excess inventory against waiting for more stable economic and policy conditions.