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US Market Under Pressure as Global Equities Gain Ground
The US market is facing increased competition from other global equity benchmarks, leading to a shift in investor sentiment. The Hang Seng Index has been one of the top performers this year, led by tech giants Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and BYD Co Ltd.
Key Trends:
- The Hang Seng Index has outperformed other major equity benchmarks to start the year.
- Chinese tech companies are gaining momentum as investors bet on their potential for growth.
- US megacap stocks are facing scrutiny, with valuation multiples under the microscope.
Dollar Fade:
The world's primary reserve currency is now 4% below its post-election peak. The slide accelerated last week, pushing the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index to its lowest since early November.
Key Drivers:
- European markets have been a major driver of the dollar's decline.
- German benchmark yields rose to their highest since 2023, contributing to the euro's gains.
- Options traders are near the most bullish on the euro in over four years.
Narrowing Gap:
The persistent US yield premium over Germany has shrunk abruptly, potentially undermining the relative appeal of Treasuries. The gap was already shrinking at the start of the year due to angst around the American economy.
Credit Impact:
All of these forces are working to the detriment of US companies, who may have a harder time attracting European buyers when they sell debt. Those investors make up more than half of the overseas buyers of US corporate bonds.
Global Outlook:
The current shift in investor sentiment may have room to run for several months or even a year. However, experts caution that the US will likely remain the biggest and most robust market despite these changes.
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