If you are looking at MPLX and wondering whether now is the right time to buy, hold, or even add more, you are definitely not alone. Investors have watched this energy infrastructure player defy lots of predictions, with its shares recently closing at $49.62. In just the past week, MPLX notched up a solid 1.4% gain, though the past month saw a slight dip of -1.4%. If you zoom out, the long-term story is hard to ignore: year-to-date returns clock in at 2.0%, the last year has delivered a hefty 21.5% gain, and over the past five years the stock has surged an astonishing 367.7%.
This kind of performance inevitably turns heads, and recent news has only fueled conversations around MPLX. Expansion in midstream infrastructure and a strong focus on capital returns to shareholders have created a sense of momentum around the company. While not every headline has driven a price jump, it is clear that investor perception of risk has shifted a bit as MPLX's strategy continues to pay off.
But the real question on everyone’s mind is whether the stock is fairly valued or maybe even a bargain. By the numbers, MPLX currently scores a 5 out of 6 on our valuation checklist, which means it is undervalued in almost every way that counts.
To break down exactly where those value opportunities come from, let's walk through the different valuation approaches commonly used to evaluate MPLX. Stick around, because at the end I’ll introduce a perspective that cuts through the noise even more effectively.
Approach 1: MPLX Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) approach estimates a company’s value by forecasting its future cash flows and then calculating what those future dollars are worth in today's terms. For MPLX, analysts and models start by taking its latest trailing twelve months Free Cash Flow, currently around $5.01 billion, and then project how these cash flows could grow over time.
For the next five years, multiple analysts expect MPLX’s Free Cash Flow to continue increasing, with estimates such as $4.11 billion for 2026 and $5.40 billion by 2029. Beyond these analyst projections, financial models further extrapolate growth, reaching an estimated $6.74 billion by 2035. These future cash flows are then discounted, or adjusted, because cash received in the future is worth less to investors than cash received today.
Based on this DCF calculation, MPLX’s intrinsic value lands at $116.84 per share, significantly above its recent close of $49.62. This implies the stock trades at a 57.5% discount to its estimated fair value, according to the DCF model.
Result: UNDERVALUED
Approach 2: MPLX Price vs Earnings (PE)
For businesses like MPLX that are consistently profitable, the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is a go-to metric for valuation. The PE ratio tells you how much investors are willing to pay today for each dollar of company earnings, and it is especially useful when evaluating companies with steady income streams like MPLX.
The “right” PE ratio for a stock is shaped by two main factors: growth expectations and perceived risk. Companies with high growth potential or lower risk generally command higher PE multiples, while slower-growing or riskier businesses tend to trade at lower multiples.
MPLX currently trades at a PE ratio of 11.77x. Compared to the Oil and Gas industry average of 12.58x and its peer group at 15.21x, MPLX looks relatively cheap. But instead of just stopping at industry comparisons, Simply Wall St uses a proprietary “Fair Ratio” model, which considers not only sector factors, but also the company’s earnings growth outlook, profit margins, market cap, and risk profile. For MPLX, the Fair Ratio comes out at 19.06x, noticeably above its current PE.
This Fair Ratio is more useful than just comparing MPLX to industry or peers, because it incorporates more nuanced company specifics, providing a sharper perspective on valuation. When you stack MPLX’s actual PE of 11.77x against its Fair Ratio of 19.06x, it becomes clear the shares are trading at a discount based on the broader picture of company fundamentals and potential.
Result: UNDERVALUED
Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your MPLX Narrative
Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let's introduce you to Narratives. A Narrative is simply your own story or perspective about MPLX, where you connect what you believe about the company's future with what those beliefs mean for revenue growth, profit margins, and ultimately the fair value you assign to the stock.
Instead of focusing solely on financial ratios, Narratives help you link a company's story to a financial forecast, which leads directly to your estimate of fair value. It is an easy, accessible way to streamline your decision making and is available right within the Community page on Simply Wall St, used by millions of investors worldwide.
Narratives are especially useful because they help you decide when to buy or sell by showing the gap between Fair Value and the current market Price, updating dynamically whenever news, earnings, or major events affect the company’s outlook. With MPLX, for example, some investors see room for the stock to rise to $64.00 based on growth from new infrastructure, while others are more cautious, setting their fair value at $51.00 due to risks tied to demand shifts and market cycles.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include MPLX.